Every prediction Olga, Chris, and guests made on the show. Cross-referenced against reality weekly. Connecting dots across episodes is show gold.
Total Predictions Logged
53
Across Ep28–Ep40 (Ep41 still to come)
Open Predictions
44
Watching the news for hits
Resolved Hits
5
Including iPhone-modality this week
"Sam Fills Vacuums" Hits
4x
Most-hit prediction · Chris Ep32
★ Just Hit This Week
Fresh callbacks from Week of May 8-14, 2026
Ep40ChrisHIT · May 14
The iPhone is nearing its 20-year horizon as being the modality of our handheld devices.
Resolution: Bloomberg leaked May 5 (covered in Ep41 prep) that Apple's iOS 27 Extensions system will let users pick which AI runs Siri, Writing Tools, and Image Playground. Each model can have its own Siri voice. The iPhone's modality is splitting at the AI layer first — exactly what Chris called 7 days earlier.
Becomes the Callback opener for Ep41. Hard horizon was 18 months. Actual horizon: 7 days.
Ep39OlgaPARTIAL · May 14
UI bifurcation. Managers and knowledge workers stop using software UIs entirely. Data-entry roles keep the UI temporarily.
Resolution: Google rebuilt Android around "Gemini Intelligence" — screen-aware automation that moves across apps without a UI. Exactly the manager/knowledge-worker shift Olga predicted, now an OS-level feature.
★ The Most-Hit Prediction
Chris's "Sam Fills Vacuums" — 4 hits across 10 weeks
Sam Altman will shift OpenAI's doctrine to whatever they need to do to win. Picks up the scraps when competitors stumble.
Made Ep32 (~1:07:00) by Chris. Has now resolved as a HIT four times.
Hit 1 · Ep33
OpenAI signed the Pentagon deal hours after Anthropic walked from the same deal.
Hit 2 · Ep36
OpenAI launched a $100 Codex plan the day after Anthropic killed the OpenClaw subsidy. Olga migrated Knox from Claude Max to Codex on air.
Hit 3 · Ep37
Anthropic gated Mythos on safety. OpenAI shipped GPT-5.4-Cyber with Trusted Access Program — picked up the defender-cyber ground Anthropic wouldn't.
Hit 4 · Ep40
OpenAI launched The Deployment Company ($10B PE JV) AND made the Pentagon's 8-vendor list while Anthropic was excluded over Mythos. "While Anthropic shipped Wall Street agents, OpenAI shipped Wall Street distribution."
Resolved Archive
Predictions that have already resolved
Ep31ChrisHIT · Ep36
Repetitive computer tasks get outsourced to a computer in a couple months.
Resolution: Olga built a working Lead Generator agent that outputs daily leads. The thing Chris predicted, Olga built. Live on Ep36.
Ep33OlgaHIT · Ep35
Framework vibe coding beats naked vibe coding once projects get serious.
Resolution: Ep35 three-way website test — agency-framework (BuildTheWeb on PageMotor) scored 8/10 vs 6/10 for the naked-skill version.
Ep34ChrisPARTIAL · Ep40
A2A replaces B2B. Agents interact directly with other agents; humans navigating websites becomes legacy.
Resolution: Sierra (Bret Taylor) raised $950M Series E at $15B+ valuation. Sierra is built to replace UI-click workflows with agents. Anthropic's Wall Street agents do the same at Goldman/Blackstone scale. The A2A direction now attracts frontier capital.
Ep36/37ChrisMISS · Ep40
Mythos releases to public last 2 weeks of May. (Confirmed twice.)
Resolution: Pentagon's May 1 vendor selection explicitly excluded Anthropic over Mythos concerns. Mythos remains gated. May release effectively off the table. Tracking misses too builds credibility.
Open Predictions · Grouped By Theme
44 calls waiting to resolve
The Great Refactoring + AI-Native Reboots
Chris coined "the great refactoring" on Ep40. Whole categories about to get rebuilt.
Ep40 Chris
"Everyone who cheats the great refactoring is going to get absolutely steamrolled."Standing structural call about companies avoiding fundamental AI-native rebuild. Strongest standalone Chris call of 2026.
Ep37 Chris
The biggest change in the hosting industry in 25 years. VPS providers with agentic CMS replace shared hosting as the default. Watch hosting revenue mix over 12-24 months.
Ep39 Chris
Only VPS-style hosts can give an AI root-level access. The next decade of websites moves to that minority of hosts. Sharpening of the Ep37 hosting call.
Ep35 Chris
WordPress is "the next Blockbuster." Standing call.
Ep40 Chris
Vibe-coding splits into prototype-tools (Lovable/Bolt/v0) and deploy-tools (AI-native CMSs). Direct PageMotor thesis.
Subscription Pricing Is Dying
Chris has hit this 3+ times. Already playing out at Anthropic + Loxo.
Ep36 Chris
Subscription pricing has an expiration date. Everything moves to cost-per-action. "AI's eating SaaS pricing." Already playing out with Anthropic Agent SDK credits May 13.
Ep37 Chris
Recurring revenue is dying. Hosting-plus-agent-layer is one of the few remaining plays.
Ep35 Chris
"Software wants to be free. You're not going to pay for software in the future. What we will be paying for is skills."Civilization-scale thesis.
Edge Devices + Local Inference Wins
Standing Chris thesis since Ep32. Doubled down at Ep36 with Gemma.
Ep32 Chris
Edge devices / local LLMs on consumer hardware will rule.
Ep36 Chris
Within a few months, Gemma (or similar) good enough for agents locally. Subsidy question goes away. Horizon: Aug-Sep 2026.
Ep36 Chris
End game = local inference on your own hardware once subsidies drop everywhere.
Ep36 Olga+Chris
Elon ships a bifurcating edge device "sooner than 2 years." First real iPhone-landscape split since 2007.
UIs Disappear / Data-Entry Job Goes Away
Olga + Chris connected this at Ep39. Already partially hitting.
Ep39 Chris
"AI doesn't need a UI. It's just data exchanged back and forth."Civilization-scale call.
Ep39 Chris
Humans will not enter data directly into software much longer. An AI intermediary will validate and push.
Ep39 Olga
UI bifurcation. Knowledge workers stop using UIs. Data-entry roles keep them temporarily. Partial hit via Google's Gemini Intelligence already.
Robot Deployment Timeline
Hard dates on this one.
Ep28 Chris
"You're going to wake up one morning and there's going to be robots everywhere." After Apptronik $520M + Tesla converting Model S for 1M robots.
Ep38 Chris
"Q1 2027, our world looks completely different in terms of robots and autonomous everything."Hard date.
Anthropic Public + Stock Bets
Both hosts on the record with specific dates.
Ep35 Olga + Chris
Anthropic IPO: "Q4, early Q4, we're thinking." Olga: "I'm definitely buying the stock." Hard date.
Ep36 Chris
OpenAI IPO gets chopped at the knees post-IPO. "$60 then the next day $7." Early retail investors destroyed.
Ep37 Olga
NewBird AI (formerly Allbirds) stock drops 80% from the 500% pop within 12 months. Hard deadline: April 2027.
Workforce + Hiring + Skills Marketplace
Olga's strongest standing structural calls.
Ep31 Olga
Junior-role hiring slowdown means "we are not going to have a lot of pool to promote people from." Structural call on the promotion pipeline.
Ep31 Olga
"The future market would be approved vendors with credibility selling their skills."Skill-marketplace shift. Echoed by Chris in Ep35.
Ep33 Chris
Every big tech company does the layoff-and-patch-back playbook. After Block cut 40% and stock jumped 18-23%. Easy to track quarterly.
Ep33 Olga
Companies that deploy AI transformation specialists today will operate as if they have 2x the headcount.
Ep33 Lauren
Every team member should have at least 5 agents handling administrative work. Quantified future-state.
Ep35 Chris
"17 of 32 NFL teams would be better off" without their current coach. Middle management is AI-replaceable. Contrarian, spicy, testable.
Finance + Markets Get Compressed
Chris standing thesis: AI eats the alpha.
Ep35 Chris
Entire financial industry comes down to bots trading. "Good traders, bad traders... all gone."
Ep37 Chris
AI compresses everyone's rate of return in public markets to a general market rate. Outsized returns only from outlier venture bets.
Platform Risk + Big-Player Wipeouts
Building what the platforms ship = dead.
Ep34 Olga
LittleBird $11M wipe (Anthropic shipped the same thing free). "Platform risk is real. If you are building what the big players are shipping, watch out."
Ep40 Chris
"Anyone who gatekeeps on AI models now, I'm bearish on their future prospects." Watch enterprise software companies that lock to one model.
GEO + Local Business Discoverability
Brick-and-mortar caught off guard.
Ep33 Lauren
Conversational Google Maps "is a wave that's going to turn into a tsunami." GEO foot-traffic prediction.
Ep29 Chris
"70%+ of existing local-business websites are toast." Triggered by Olga's Knox mystery-shop where 7 of 10 local shops were invisible to AI agents.
The traditional CMS becomes a file cabinet. The AI-native CMS becomes a business partner. Four shifts: real-time business adaptation, per-visitor adaptation, memory layer, stack coordination. Each shift independently testable.
Ep40 Chris
Once PageMotor's API is fully complete, you have a conversation with your site. Within weeks of admin API ship May 8.
Ep35 Chris
"PageMotor is going to crush Emdash." Plus Emdash plugin gold rush short-term but long-term failure.
Elon + xAI + Hardware
Restructure-and-execute pattern.
Ep40 Chris
Elon will move xAI toward owning the hardware modality (phone or device). Similar to OpenAI/Ive 2027 phone direction.
Ep35 Chris+Olga
More xAI exec departures coming. "He'll stretch you to the breaking point... this looks inevitable." After Ross Nordeen's exit.
AI Security + Cyber + Surveillance
Adversary AI vs defender AI race.
Ep35 Chris
Claude Mythos + Google quantum-breaks-Bitcoin paper: "Real if you do it. Smoke if you talk about it in a paper." Neither translates to real-world impact soon.
Ep35 Olga
Meta TRAV2 brain-activity prediction: "Meta will build emotionally-targeted ads that laser-cut buying behavior. This is creepy and it's coming."
Ep38 Olga
Meta keystroke/screen tracking copied by 3+ big companies before Q2 ends. Hard deadline: June 30, 2026.
Legal Industry + Copyright + AI
Lawyer gold rush incoming.
Ep31 Olga
Publisher lawsuits drive higher training costs, restricted data, or output changes. On Britannica/Merriam-Webster v. OpenAI.
Ep32 Olga
SCOTUS AI-copyright ruling triggers a "massive lawyer-gold-rush wave" as companies figure out what was AI-generated and can't be copyrighted.
One-Off Standing Calls
Individual predictions that don't cluster but are testable.
Ep28 Chris
"GitHub's death is imminent. We'll just count down the days." After CEO Thomas Dohmke left for an AI code-audit startup.
Ep28 Chris
"Entire departments can be done with a single properly contextualized agent. Entire businesses are just one agent."
Ep37 Chris
Cost of compute keeps falling. "If it doesn't come down, something's fundamentally broken about the world." Bet against if it reverses.
Ep37 Chris
50,000 PageMotor sites run on the same stack as 1,000 WordPress sites. 50x efficiency.
Ep40 Chris
China's investment profile (heavy robotics, light model-racing) is "the most sane, most logical for the AI landscape."
Ep32 Chris
AI investment rocket-ship: "There is no going back. Pandora doesn't get stuffed back in the box."